Identifying the Factors and Their Impact Levels on Severity of Maritime Traffic Accidents

被引：0

作者：

Wu Q. ^{[1
]}

Shi X. ^{[1
]}

Tao X.-Z. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai

来源：

Jiaotong Yunshu Xitong Gongcheng Yu Xinxi/Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology | 2019年 / 19卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Impact level; Marginal effect analysis; Ordered probability model; Severity of maritime traffic accidents; Waterway transportation;

D O I：

10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2019.01.028

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Based on the investigation reports of maritime traffic accident, which were published by three maritime safety administrations, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, two kinds of ordered probability model (including the ordered Logit and the ordered Probit model) are established to identify the influencing factors and their impact levels on the severity of maritime traffic accidents (SMTA). The results show that the ordered probabilistic models are suitable for the study, but the ordered Logit model outperforms the ordered Probit model. In particular, the factors of season, time interval, weather, navigable waterways, vessel type, length and ownership have positive influences on larger and above accidents, while the influence of visibility is negative. Among them, the impact of the vessel length above 200 meters is the largest (marginal effect: 0.378 3), which followed by summer season (0.282 2). Meanwhile, the impact of poor visibility is smallest (- 0.108 0), which followed by individual vessels (0.109 5). Finally, the results can provide a decision basis for maritime safety administrations to carry out safety supervision work. Copyright © 2019 by Science Press.

引用

页码：185 / 191

页数：6

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