Risk of stroke with different levels of leisure-time physical activity: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Background Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) protects against vascular diseases. Whether and to what extent different levels of LTPA, including lower ones, benefit stroke prevention is still unclear.Methods We searched prospective cohort studies, indexed on PubMed and Scopus, published in English up to 22 April 2023, that investigated, in a general healthy population, the relationship between different predefined LTPA levels, compared with inactivity, and the risk of any type of stroke. We applied random effect modelling for meta-analyses and meta-regression to control for the impact of age and sex.Results Out of 3064 screened articles, 15 articles on 16 cohorts of subjects were included in meta-analyses, with a total of 752 050 followed-up subjects. Mean follow-up was 125.7 +/- 77.5 months. Included studies identified three (none, below target and ideal) to five (none, insufficient, low, moderate and intense) levels of LTPA. In the five studies identifying three levels of LTPA, compared with no LTPA, below target (risk ratio (RR)=0.82, 95% CI=0.75 to 0.88) and ideal LTPA significantly reduced stroke risk (RR=0.71, 95% CI=0.58 to 0.86). Lower levels of LTPA also mitigated stroke risk in studies reporting on four (n=6; RR=0.73, 95% CI=0.62 to 0.87 favouring moderate LTPA over no LTPA) and five levels (n=2; RR=0.71, 95% CI=0.58 to 0.88 favouring moderate LTPA over no LTPA). The benefits of LTPA were independent of age and sex.Results Out of 3064 screened articles, 15 articles on 16 cohorts of subjects were included in meta-analyses, with a total of 752 050 followed-up subjects. Mean follow-up was 125.7 +/- 77.5 months. Included studies identified three (none, below target and ideal) to five (none, insufficient, low, moderate and intense) levels of LTPA. In the five studies identifying three levels of LTPA, compared with no LTPA, below target (risk ratio (RR)=0.82, 95% CI=0.75 to 0.88) and ideal LTPA significantly reduced stroke risk (RR=0.71, 95% CI=0.58 to 0.86). Lower levels of LTPA also mitigated stroke risk in studies reporting on four (n=6; RR=0.73, 95% CI=0.62 to 0.87 favouring moderate LTPA over no LTPA) and five levels (n=2; RR=0.71, 95% CI=0.58 to 0.88 favouring moderate LTPA over no LTPA). The benefits of LTPA were independent of age and sex.Conclusions According to our results, all levels of LTPA can be beneficial for stroke prevention, including levels currently regarded as low or insufficient. People should be encouraged to be physically active even at the lowest levels.PROSPERO registration number CRD42023425302.