Availability assessment of complex systems under parameter uncertainty using dynamic evidential networks

被引：6

作者：

Bougofa M. ^{[1
]}

Bouafia A. ^{[2
]}

Bellaouar A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Transport Engineering and Environment Laboratory, Frères Mentouri Constantine 1 University, Constantine

[2] Chemical Engineering and Environment Laboratory, Skikda University, Skikda

来源：

International Journal of Performability Engineering | 2020年 / 16卷 / 04期

关键词：

Availability; Complex system; Dynamic evidential network; Epistemic uncertainty; Evidence theory;

D O I：

10.23940/ijpe.20.04.p2.510519

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In many dynamic complex systems, the insufficiency of data makes components state probability estimation more difficult in most cases. This paper presents a new approach for evaluating complex system availability under epistemic uncertainties, based on a combination of the Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). This combination is called a dynamic evidential network (DEN). DST is well known for its utility and purpose to express uncertain experts' judgments about components state beliefs for treating epistemic uncertainty. In addition, the dynamic evidential network makes it possible to propagate this uncertainty while taking into consideration dynamic evolution and the dependency between components using conditional mass tables. Finally, a case study is presented as a validation of this approach. © 2020 Totem Publisher, Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：510 / 519

页数：9

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