"Lockdown Generation": Youth Labor Market Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study presents empirical results on the dropout rates of Russian youth from employment and education during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) for 2018-2021. Our findings highlight an increase in the proportion of Russian youth classified as NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) in 2020, primarily driven by a surge in NEET-inactive individuals, especially among women. This trend aligns with international studies that noted a significant rise in the NEET category due to individuals being out of the labor force during the pandemic. Despite this, the magnitude of the change in NEET rates in Russia in 2020 was relatively minor compared to other countries. The peak of the pandemic saw heightened transitions of young men and women from employment into NEET-inactivity, which subsequently declined with the economic recovery. However, our regression analysis did not identify a significant independent impact of the 2020 COVID-19 restrictions on the dynamics of NEET-unemployed and NEET-inactive, controlling for other factors. This outcome is attributed to the Russian labor market's unique adaptation strategies to the COVID-19 shock, wherein enterprises predominantly resorted to salary reductions and reduced working hours rather than layoffs, allowing workers to maintain formal employment. The notable exception, as indicated by the RLMS-HSE data, was a significantly higher likelihood of NEET inactivity among young women, likely due to challenges in balancing study/work and household responsibilities during the restrictions.