Dynamic simulation of process risk for the navigation of liquefied-natural-gas-fueled vessels

被引：0
|
作者：
Li W. [1 ,2 ]
Hu S. [1 ]
Chen W. [3 ]
Tao X. [1 ]
Tian L. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai
[2] Department of Navigation, Jiangsu Shipping College, Nantong
[3] College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai
来源：
Harbin Gongcheng Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Harbin Engineering University | 2020年 / 41卷 / 12期
关键词：
Cloud model; LNG-fueled vessels; Marine traffic; Markov chain; Performance simulation; Process safety; Risk assessment; Systems theoretic accident modeling and processes; Systems theoretic process analysis;
D O I：
10.11990/jheu.201910002
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
To expound on the evolution law of the operational risk of liquefied-natural-gas-(LNG) fueled vessels in complex equipment systems, the process risk status of ships in restricted waters needs to be investigated. The system theoretic process analysis method is used to analyze LNG-fueled vessels in three dimensions, namely, component failure, external environmental interference, and component interaction, by constructing the system theoretic accident modeling and process model between ship system, LNG fuel system, and fuel operational process. Based on the Markov process hypothesis, and along with the Markov chain and cloud model, a process risk simulation model is proposed for LNG-fueled ships in restricted waters. Considering the LNG-fueled vessels from an anchorage of the Yangtze River to a designated berth as an example, combined with the navigation conditions of complex waters, the behavioral risk of ship navigation of LNG-fueled vessels in restricted waters is simulated. The validity and sensitivity of the model are verified by comparing and analyzing the simulation results in a single environment and a real environment. The simulation results show that the risk evolution of the navigation process of LNG-fueled ships presents a "bathtub curve" law. The risk of ship navigation is higher during the start and end periods, and the human and environmental elements are the primary causes of risk formation during the operation of LNG-fueled vessels. Copyright ©2020 Journal of Harbin Engineering University.
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页码：1757 / 1764
页数：7
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