Pakistan's circular bio-economy: potential, opportunities and sustainable development

There are various forms of waste with a recycling potential. These wastes can be converted into valuable goods (such as chemicals and animal foods with minimising adverse environmental effects), thus contributing to sustainable development. This study highlights the ability of different types of waste and their prospects in contributing to Pakistan's circular economy. The research combines quantitative techniques (regression) with qualitative techniques (fuzzy Delphi method) to determine the amount of energy extracted from Pakistani crop residue and animal manure. Then it employs expert opinions to obtain more comprehensive results for recycling these wastes. The regression models estimate the potential of biomass in Pakistan till 2036, whereas the fuzzy Delphi method uses expert feedback to determine the forest residue potential. The results indicate that Pakistan has a great potential for waste recycling subject to modern technologies. The results indicate that the total crop residue in Pakistan will increase by 57% by 2036 compared to the 2018 level, subsequently increasing the potential for biogas production and energy by the same percentage. At the crop level, the residue from wheat, maize, rice, sugarcane, and cotton is expected to rise by 8%, 114%, 63%, 40%, and 82%, respectively, during the same period. Similarly, power generation potential from buffaloes is expected to increase to 79,339,451 MWh (40% to 2016 level) by 2026 and to 106,000,000 MWh (34% to 2016 level) by 2036, respectively. Whereas, the power generation capacity from cattle waste is expected to grow by 14.53% (to the 2016 level) by 2026 and by 12.69% (to the 2016 level) by 2036, respectively. The research provides insight for policymaking and possible direction to explore this important but ignored area that has the potential to benefit the economy and can help the country achieve sustainable development goals.