Prediction of solar activities: Sunspot numbers and solar magnetic synoptic maps

被引:1
作者
Zhuo, Rui [1 ]
He, Jiansen [1 ]
Duan, Die [2 ]
Lin, Rong [1 ,3 ]
Wu, Ziqi [1 ]
Yan, Limei [4 ,5 ]
Wei, Yong [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Peking Univ, Sch Earth & Space Sci, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China
[2] Natl Univ Def Technol, Coll Adv Interdisciplinary Studies, Changsha 410073, Peoples R China
[3] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Ctr Math Plasma Astrophys, Dept Math, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium
[4] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
[5] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金; 国家重点研发计划;
关键词
Solar activity prediction; Solar magnetic field; Spherical harmonic expansion; Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM); Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD); NEURAL-NETWORK; CYCLE; FIELD; EVOLUTION; SUN;
D O I
10.1007/s11430-023-1354-4
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities. And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field. In this paper, based on the spherical harmonic expansion of the photospheric magnetic field observed by Wilcox Solar Observatory, we analyze the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients and predict Sunspot Number as well as synoptic maps for Solar Cycle 25. We find that solar maximum years have complex short-period disturbances, and the time series of coefficient g70 is nearly in-phase with Sunspot Number, which may be related to solar meridional circulation. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), our prediction suggests that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to occur in June 2024 with an error of 8 months, the peak sunspot number may be 166.9 +/- 22.6, and the next solar minimum may occur around January 2031. By incorporating Empirical Mode Decomposition, we enhance our forecast of synoptic maps truncated to Order 5, validating their relative reliability. This prediction not only addresses a gap in forecasting the global distribution of the solar magnetic field but also holds potential reference value for forthcoming solar observation plans.
引用
收藏
页码:2460 / 2477
页数:18
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