Exploring the Predictive Value of Gut Microbiome Signatures for Therapy Intensification in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A 10-Year Follow-up Study

Background Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) pose a significant challenge due to their diverse, often debilitating, and unpredictable clinical manifestations. The absence of prognostic tools to anticipate the future complications that require therapy intensification presents a substantial burden to patient private life and health. We aimed to explore whether the gut microbiome is a potential biomarker for future therapy intensification in a cohort of 90 IBD patients.Methods We conducted whole-genome metagenomics sequencing on fecal samples from these patients, allowing us to profile the taxonomic and functional composition of their gut microbiomes. Additionally, we conducted a retrospective analysis of patients' electronic records over a period of 10 years following the sample collection and classified patients into (1) those requiring and (2) not requiring therapy intensification. Therapy intensification included medication escalation, intestinal resections, or a loss of response to a biological treatment. We applied gut microbiome diversity analysis, dissimilarity assessment, differential abundance analysis, and random forest modeling to establish associations between baseline microbiome profiles and future therapy intensification.Results We identified 12 microbial species (eg, Roseburia hominis and Dialister invisus) and 16 functional pathways (eg, biosynthesis of L-citrulline and L-threonine) with significant correlations to future therapy intensifications. Random forest models using microbial species and pathways achieved areas under the curve of 0.75 and 0.72 for predicting therapy intensification.Conclusions The gut microbiome is a potential biomarker for therapy intensification in IBD patients and personalized management strategies. Further research should validate our findings in other cohorts to enhance the generalizability of these results. Ninety IBD patients were followed-up for 10 years after producing a fecal sample. During this period, 36% of the patients required therapy intensification. We show that the gut microbiome at baseline is associated with, and might hold predictive value for future necessity of therapy intensification.