Estimating yield stability and predicting the response of sesame genotypes to climate change using the SALTMED model

Climate change (CC) could lead to many crises. Therefore, increasing the number of cultivated varieties represents a low-cost factor in confronting this problem. The effect of the genotype x environment (G x E) interaction on yield stability was estimated for 28 new sesame lines in the Beni Suwef, El-Beheira and El-Menoufia governorates in Egypt across 15 environments from 2019 to 2022 using AMMI analysis. The SALTMED model was used to predict the yield of sesame plants under five increasing air temperature scenarios (CC factor) to obtain future projections of sesame yield to determine the lines that are most genetically stable and facing CC. Variance analysis revealed significant differences in yield between the G and E groups and between the G x E interaction group. Fifteen genotypes yielded better control, and C6.4, C5.8 and C9.6 were selected as genetically stable according to AMMI analysis. The SALTMED model predicted that the yields of lines C3.8 and C6.2 were not affected under the high-temperature scenarios across the three governorates, moreover lines C1.8, C2.3, and, C6.12 productions were not affected under Beni Suwef and El-Beheira governorates. of lines C1.8, C2.3 and C6.12 were also not affected by the Beni Suwef or El-Beheira governorates. It is now possible to establish a hybridization programme in sesame that combines parents with high productivity and high resilience to CC. Le changement climatique (CC) pourrait entra & icirc;ner de nombreuses crises. Par cons & eacute;quent, l'augmentation du nombre de vari & eacute;t & eacute;s cultiv & eacute;es repr & eacute;sente un facteur peu co & ucirc;teux pour faire face & agrave; ce probl & egrave;me. L'effet de l'interaction g & eacute;notype x environnement (G x E) sur la stabilit & eacute; du rendement a & eacute;t & eacute; estim & eacute; pour 28 nouvelles lign & eacute;es de s & eacute;same dans les gouvernorats de Beni Suwef, El-Beheira et El-Menoufia dans 15 environnements de 2019 & agrave; 2022 en & Eacute;gypte en utilisant l'analyse AMMI. Le mod & egrave;le SALTMED a & eacute;t & eacute; utilis & eacute; pour pr & eacute;dire le rendement des plants de s & eacute;same selon cinq sc & eacute;narios d'augmentation de la temp & eacute;rature de l'air comme facteur CC pour obtenir des projections futures du rendement de s & eacute;same afin de d & eacute;terminer les lignes les plus stables g & eacute;n & eacute;tiquement et les plus expos & eacute;es au CC. L'analyse de variance a r & eacute;v & eacute;l & eacute; des diff & eacute;rences significatives de rendement entre les groupes G et E et entre le groupe d'interaction G x E. Quinze genotypes ont donn & eacute; un meilleur contr & ocirc;le, et C6.4, C5.8 et C9.6 ont & eacute;t & eacute; retenus comme g & eacute;notype g & eacute;n & eacute;tiquement stables selon l'analyse de l'AMMI. En utilisant le mod & egrave;le SALTMED, on a pr & eacute;vu que les rendements des lignes C3.8 et C6.2 n'& eacute;taient pas affect & eacute;s dans les sc & eacute;narios & agrave; haute temp & eacute;rature dans les trois gouvernorats. Les rendements des lignes C1.8, C2.3 et C6.12 n'ont pas non plus & eacute;t & eacute; affect & eacute;s par les gouvernorats de Beni Suwef et El-Beheira. Il est maintenant possible de mettre en place un programme d'hybridation du s & eacute;same qui combine des parents avec une productivit & eacute; & eacute;lev & eacute;e et une grande r & eacute;sistance au CC.