Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems With Renewable Energy Sources: Basic Concepts and Mathematical Principles

High proportion renewable energy has become the prominent feature of modern power system. The intermittency and volatility of renewable energy generation bring significant uncertainties for the power systems, and thus increase the risks to power system security and stability. Probabilistic forecasting can effectively realize the quantification of prediction uncertainty in power systems with renewable energy sources. Compared with classical deterministic forecasting, probabilistic forecasting can provide more comprehensive forecasting information, and key data supports for the analysis and decision-making of power systems. This paper mathematically elaborated the basic definitions of forecasting and further analyzed the generating mechanism of forecasting uncertainties. Basic concepts including forecasting horizons and evaluation indices for probabilistic forecasting were expounded detailedly. Then, mathematical principles for probabilistic forecasting were demonstrated from the point of essential scientific problems and mathematical expressions. The commonly used methodologies for probabilistic forecasting were investigated from different types of classifications. Finally, the problems and challenges for researches on probabilistic forecasting were summarized in detail. © 2021 Chin. Soc. for Elec. Eng.