Community-Academic Partnership to Assess the Role of Physical Disinvestment on Firearm Violence in Toledo, OH

Reversing physical disinvestment, e.g., by remediating abandoned buildings and vacant lots, is an evidence-based strategy to reduce urban firearm violence. However, adoption of this strategy has been inconsistent across US cities. Our community-academic partnership sought to support adoption in Toledo, OH, USA, by generating locally relevant analyses on physical disinvestment and firearm violence. We used a spatial case-control design with matching. Physical disinvestment measures were derived from a citywide parcel foot audit conducted by the Lucas County Land Bank in summer 2021. Firearm violence outcomes were incident-level shootings data from the Toledo Police Department from October 2021 through February 2023. Shooting locations were matched to controls 1:4 on poverty rate, roadway characteristics, and zoning type. Exposures were calculated by aggregating parcels within 5-min walking buffers of each case and control point. We tested multiple disinvestment measures, including a composite index. Models were logistic regressions that adjusted for the matching variables and for potential spatial autocorrelation. Our sample included N = 281 shooting locations and N = 1124 matched controls. A 1-unit increase in the disinvestment score, equal to approximately 1 additional disrepair condition for the average parcel within the walking buffer, was associated with 1.68 times (95% CI: 1.36, 2.07) higher odds of shooting incidence. Across all other measures, greater disinvestment was associated with higher odds of shooting incidence. Our finding of a strong association between physical disinvestment and firearm violence in Toledo can inform local action. Community-academic partnership could help increase adoption of violence prevention strategies focused on reversing physical disinvestment.