Who Believes in Fraud in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election? Election Denialism, Partisan Motivated Reasoning, and Affective Polarization

被引:3
作者
Cornejo, Rodrigo Castro [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Massachusetts, Polit Sci, Lowell, MA 01854 USA
关键词
misperceptions; motivated reasoning; partisanship; Mexico; percepciones err & oacute; neas; razonamiento motivado; identificaci & oacute; n partidista; M & eacute; xico; ELECTORAL INSTITUTIONS; CONSPIRACY THEORIES; CONFIDENCE; OPINION; CUES; MISPERCEPTIONS; COMMUNICATION; PERCEPTIONS; ORIGINS; BIAS;
D O I
10.1017/lar.2024.11
中图分类号
K9 [地理];
学科分类号
0705 ;
摘要
Why do some voters believe that there is electoral fraud when this belief contradicts the best available evidence? While the literature on public opinion has explored misperceptions' pervasiveness and the factors that contribute to them in advanced industrial democracies, the present study analyzes motivated reasoning among voters in a young democracy, Mexico. This study highlights the important role that partisanship plays in voters' likelihood to believe the allegations of electoral fraud in the 2006 presidential election in Mexico, which continues polarizing both political elites and the electorate even today. To understand the mechanisms at work, this research finds that it is not voters lacking information but rather voters with high levels of affective polarization and conspiratorial thinking who are more likely to believe that there was electoral fraud. The study also includes a survey experiment that fact-checked the belief in the alleged electoral fraud. Consistent with motivated reasoning theory, MORENA partisans resisted efforts to reduce their misperception. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the conditions that make some voters hold misperceptions in young democracies. & iquest;Por qu & eacute; algunos votantes creen que hubo fraude electoral cuando esta creencia contradice la mejor evidencia disponible? Si bien la literatura sobre la opini & oacute;n p & uacute;blica ha estudiado las percepciones err & oacute;neas y los factores que contribuyen a ellas en las democracias industriales avanzadas, el presente estudio analiza el razonamiento motivado entre los votantes en una democracia joven, M & eacute;xico. Este estudio destaca el importante papel que juega la identificaci & oacute;n partidista en la probabilidad que los votantes crean en las acusaciones de fraude electoral en las elecciones presidenciales de 2006 en M & eacute;xico, que contin & uacute;an polarizando tanto a las & eacute;lites pol & iacute;ticas como al electorado incluso hoy. Para comprender los mecanismos existentes, esta investigaci & oacute;n encuentra que no es la falta de informaci & oacute;n, sino que los votantes con altos niveles de polarizaci & oacute;n afectiva y pensamiento conspirativo son m & aacute;s propensos a creer que hubo un fraude electoral. Este estudio tambi & eacute;n incluye un experimento de encuesta que verific & oacute; la creencia en el supuesto fraude electoral. Consistente con la teor & iacute;a del razonamiento motivado, los partidarios de MORENA se resistieron a la intervenci & oacute;n para reducir su percepci & oacute;n err & oacute;nea. Los hallazgos de este estudio contribuyen a nuestra comprensi & oacute;n de las condiciones que hacen que algunos votantes tengan percepciones err & oacute;neas en las democracias j & oacute;venes.
引用
收藏
页码:588 / 609
页数:22
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