Is the insular coastal tourism of western Greece at risk due to climate induced sea level rise?

Coastal environments and, especially, beach zones are among the most common areas for tourism activity, comprising valuable economic resources. Beach zones are highly dynamic environments, recognized as highly vulnerable to climate change coastal ecosystems because of, amongst other, extreme events and sea-level rise. It is considerably important for beach tourism management the development of proper adaptation strategies. The scope of this study is to provide an assessment of the potential climate-related risk on touristic beaches of the Ionian Islands (Greece) by applying a three-step risk assessment methodology, following the impact chain conceptual framework. More specifically, the methodology integrates: (i) beach hazard as an expression of beach retreat calculation due to sea level rise to the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2050, (ii) beach exposure with regard to tourism economic losses according to the extent of beach touristic exploitation, and (iii) beach vulnerability with regard to both beach capacity considering its morphological characteristics and sensitivity considering the adverse impact of artificial structures and human development in the area. The results indicate a great heterogeneity in risk, with more than half beaches being at high or very high risk under the highest emissions scenario.