Discrete grey DGM(1,1,T) model with time periodic term and its application

被引：0
|
作者：
Luo D. [1 ]
Wang X. [1 ]
Sun D. [2 ]
Zhang G. [2 ]
机构：
[1] School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou
[2] School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou
来源：
Xitong Gongcheng Lilun yu Shijian/System Engineering Theory and Practice | 2020年 / 40卷 / 10期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Agricultural drought prediction; DGM(1; 1; T); model; Grey periodic forecasting; PSO-LM algorithm;
D O I：
10.12011/1000-6788-2019-1335-10
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
For the periodic fluctuation characteristic of system behavior sequences, the trigonometric function is introduced into the discrete grey forecasting model, and a discrete grey DGM(1,1,T) model with time periodic term is proposed. The reduction formula of DGM(1,1,T) model can be expressed as the coupling form of trigonometric function and exponential function, which shows that the model is suitable for compound sequences with periodicity and trend. The parameter estimation of DGM(1,1,T) model is transformed into a nonlinear optimization problem based on the least squares theory, and PSO-LM hybrid algorithm is proposed for numerical solution. The applicable range of the model and the validity of the parameter estimation method are verified by numerical experiments. Finally, DGM(1,1,T) model is applied to predict the agricultural drought in Anyang City, Luoyang City, Xuchang City, and Shangqiu City of Henan Province, the result shows that soil moisture in four cities will decrease in 2019. © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.
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页码：2737 / 2746
页数：9
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