Do shifts in the racial and ethnic composition of a neighborhood lead to extreme changes in commuting times? evidence from New York City

From 2000 to 2016, NYC average commuting times increased by a marginal 0.24 s across all transit modes. Depending on one's viewpoint, this could be a policy success due to no significant increase in commuting times or it could be a policy failure due to no substantial decrease in commuting time over almost two decades. Nevertheless, many census tracts actually experienced extreme increases or decreases in commuting times. The goal of this paper is to examine these extreme changes by focusing on understanding how changes in census tracts', racial and ethnic compositions influence commuting time changes. Analyzing NYC as a case study, we use logistic regressions with eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) to identify the likelihood of extreme changes in commuting time from 2000 to 2016 given changes in various neighborhood characteristics. Overall, census tracts experiencing increases in Black, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino residents, female-headed households, and workers in professional occupations as well as higher highway densities are likely to have experienced extreme increases in commuting times. Meanwhile, census tracts experiencing increases in White residents, income, rental occupancy, housing burden, and proportions of their census tract within a subway shed are likely to have experienced extreme decreases in commuting times. The results for race and ethnicity support existing research indicating that racial and ethnic minorities are likelier to experience longer commuting times compared to White residents. The importance of our research, though, lies in showing that even when overall commuting times remain relatively stable, racial/ethnic minorities still face commuting disadvantages.