From resettlement to revitalization: Examining the water resource environment carrying capacity of ecological migrant resettlement areas in China

Identifying the threshold and leverage point of water resource environment carrying capacity (WRECC) is crucial for effectively adjusting the industrial structure, population migration, and regional planning. This study has introduced the concept of leverage points and employed both the gray system model and the system dynamic (SD) model to reveal the threshold of WRECC and capture the coupling relationship between the population growth system and the WRECC system in Hongsibao County, China. Three typical scenarios were designed for distinct purposes and simulated by the constructed SD model in Hongsibao County from 2021 to 2030. The results indicate that the quantity of water resource carrying capacity, rather than the quality, is a critical shortcoming hindering socio-economic sustainability in Hongsibao County. Threshold and leverage point analysis showed that the increased development speed scenario performed the worst in terms of WRECC (28.02 x 104 persons in 2021) and leverage point (23.65 x 104 persons in 2026). The steady development scenario is considerably more effective for improving WRECC and boosting system recovery and conditioning, and the steady development scenario performs the best in both aspects. To achieve stable development, priority actions are necessary. Firstly, it is imperative to improve agricultural water-saving irrigation rates while addressing soil salinization in Hongsibao County. Secondly, efforts should be directed toward developing the grape industry, breeding industry, and wolfberry industry to stimulate economic growth while avoiding excessive water consumption. Finally, promoting the establishment of comprehensive sewage disposal infrastructure in rural areas is vital for protecting the water environment.