20th-Century Antarctic Sea Level Mitigation Driven by Uncertain East Antarctic Accumulation History

Increasing snow accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet may mitigate future sea level rise. However, current estimates of mitigation potential are poorly constrained due to limited records of past variability. We present an annually resolved reconstruction of Antarctic snow accumulation from 1801 to 2000 CE, employing a paleoclimate data assimilation methodology to integrate ice core records with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Our reconstruction correlates well with instrumental reanalysis, and we find that Antarctic accumulation rates increased over the 20th-century, resulting in a modest amount (similar to 1 mm) of sea level mitigation. Mitigation is primarily driven by an accelerating trend since around 1970. Our results contrast with previous mitigation estimates of similar to 10-12 mm; this discrepancy is due to poorly constrained baseline estimates of 19th-century accumulation in East Antarctica. Our reconstruction suggests that the uncertainty of future sea level mitigation from increasing Antarctic accumulation has been underestimated. Ice loss from Antarctica causes sea level to rise, but Antarctica can also mitigate sea level rise if snowfall on the continent increases faster than the ice loss. There is not currently a consensus on whether Antarctica will contribute to or mitigate sea level rise in the coming century, due to a lack of Antarctic snowfall records. In this paper, we merge information from ice core records with climate models to reconstruct annual Antarctic snowfall from 1801 to 2000. We find that snowfall on Antarctica increased during the 20th-century, but only had a modest counteracting effect of 1 mm on sea level rise in the 20th-century, much less than a previous estimate of 10 mm. The large discrepancy is due to uncertainty in East Antarctic accumulation in the 19th-century. The potential for Antarctica to mitigate sea level is uncertain, affecting projections for future sea level rise. Antarctic accumulation reconstruction using paleoclimate data assimilation finds modest (similar to 1 mm) 20th-century sea level mitigation We find similar 20th-century trends to previous work; lower sea level mitigation (1 vs. 10 mm) is due to the 19th-century baseline Uncertainty in past East Antarctic accumulation limits confidence in future projections of Antarctic sea level mitigation