Global trends in fibre prices, production and consumption

Global production of man-made fibres rose by 4.2% to 82.8 mn tons in 2022, following a 6.4% increase in the previous year. Synthetic fibres accounted for most of the rise in global man-made fibre production in 2022, and most of the increase in synthetic fibre production was due to growth in polyester fibre output. Cellulosic fibre production was also up, but only by 0.4%. Looking ahead, man-made fibre production is forecast to rise by an average of 3.6% per annum between 2022 and 2030 and is expected to account for almost 75% of global fibre production in 2030. The rise between 2022 and 2030 will reflect similar growth in the production of synthetic fibres and cellulosic fibres. Production of natural fibres rose by 1.6% to 33.0 mn tons in 2022. The rise reflected a 4.9% increase in cotton production, which accounts for around 75% of total production of natural fibres. However, the rise followed a 4.7% decline in the previous year. As a result, production of natural fibres in 2022 remained below the levels seen during 2018-20, reflecting a slowdown in demand. Furthermore, the share of natural fibres in total fibre production fell from 29.0% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022, which represented its lowest level for several years. In the 2023/24 season (August 1, 2023-July 31, 2024), global consumption of cotton fibre is forecast to rise by 3.9%, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This forecast is based on the assumption of an improvement in the global economy. However, there remain several economic uncertainties, reflecting, primarily, the impact of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, USDA is predicting that production of cotton fibre will fall by 2.8% to a level below that of consumption and that the stock level will therefore decline. However, the stock level will remain high and so there is unlikely to be any upward pressure on prices. Overall, the cotton price is forecast to average around 90 US cents/lb in 2023/24, and if this forecast comes to fruition it will be 11 US cents/lb lower than in 2022/23. © Textiles Intelligence Limited 2023