Coronal dimmings as indicators of the direction of early coronal mass ejection propagation

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can cause severe disturbances in space weather. Earth-directed CMEs are responsible for the disruption of technological systems and damaging power grids. However, the early evolution of CMEs, especially Earth-directed ones, is poorly tracked using traditional coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line. Aims. The most distinct phenomena associated with CMEs in the low corona are coronal dimmings, which are localized regions of reduced emission in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-rays formed due to mass loss and expansion during a CME. We present a new approach to estimating the early CME propagation direction based on the expansion of coronal dimmings. Methods. We developed the Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction (DIRECD) method. First, we performed simulations of CMEs in 3D using a geometric CME cone model and varying parameters such as width, height, source location, and deflection from the radial direction to study their influence on the CME projection onto the solar sphere. Second, we estimated the dominant direction of the dimming extent based on the evolution of the dimming area. Third, using the derived dominant direction of the dimming evolution on the solar sphere, we solved an inverse problem to reconstruct an ensemble of CME cones at different heights, widths, and deflections from the radial propagation. Finally, we searched for which CME parameter combinations the CME orthogonal projections onto the solar sphere would match the geometry of the dimming at the end of its impulsive phase best; we did so to derive the CME direction in 3D. We tested our approach on two case studies on 1 October, 2011 and 6 September, 2011. We also validated our results with 3D tie-pointing of the CME bubble in an EUV low corona and with 3D reconstructions by graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) of white-light CMEs higher up in the corona. Results. Using DIRECD, we found that the CME on 1 October, 2011 expanded dominantly toward the south-east, while the CME on 6 September, 2011 was inclined toward the north-west. This is in agreement with the CME direction estimates from previous studies using multi-viewpoint coronagraphic observations. Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that coronal dimming information can be used to estimate the CME's direction early in its evolution. This allows us to provide information on the CME direction before it is observed in the coronograph's field of view, which is of practical importance for space weather forecasting and the mitigation of potential adverse impacts on Earth.