Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of the Mixteco River Basin with the SWAT Model

被引：1

作者：

Colin-Garcia, Gerardo ^{[1
]}

Palacios-Velez, Enrique ^{[2
]}

Lopez-Perez, Adolfo ^{[2
]}

Bolanos-Gonzalez, Martin Alejandro ^{[2
]}

Flores-Magdaleno, Hector ^{[2
]}

Ascencio-Hernandez, Roberto ^{[2
]}

Canales-Islas, Enrique Inoscencio ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Forest Agr & Livestock Res INIFAP, Ctr Chiapas Expt Field South Pacific Reg Res Ctr, Ocozocoautla-Cintalapa Int Highway Km 3-0, Ocozocoautla de Espinosa 29140, Mexico

[2] Hydrosci Postgrad Coll, Campus Montecillo,Texcoco Highway Km 36-5, Mexico City 56264, Mexico

[3] Natl Inst Forest Agr & Livestock Res INIFAP, Santiago Ixcuintla Expt Field Cent Pacific Reg Res, Nogales Int Highway Km 6-0, Mexico City 63300, Mexico

来源：

HYDROLOGY | 2024年 / 11卷 / 04期

关键词：

bias correction; climate scenarios; management plans; water yield; water resources; ASSESSMENT-TOOL; SOIL; CALIBRATION; PROJECTIONS; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.3390/hydrology11040045

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

Assessing the impact of climate change is essential for developing water resource management plans, especially in areas facing severe issues regarding ecosystem service degradation. This study assessed the effects of climate change on the hydrological balance using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model in the Mixteco River Basin (MRB), Oaxaca, Mexico. Temperature and precipitation were predicted with the projections of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6); the bias was corrected using CMhyd software, and then the best performing GCM was selected for use in the SWAT model. According to the GCM MPI-ESM1-2-LR, precipitation might decrease by between 83.71 mm and 225.83 mm, while temperature might increase by between 2.57 degrees C and 4.77 degrees C, causing a greater atmospheric evaporation demand that might modify the hydrological balance of the MRB. Water yield might decrease by 47.40% and 61.01% under the climate scenarios SP245 and SSP585, respectively. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to offset the adverse impact of climate change in the MRB.

引用

页数：24

共 79 条

[1]

Abbaspour KC, 2007, MODSIM 2007: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON MODELLING AND SIMULATION, P1603

[2] A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures [J].