Coordinated development evaluation and diagnosis of regional water resources-social economy-ecological environment system based on mechanical model and risk matrix

Coordinated development of water resources-social economy-ecological environment (WSE) system is crucial for global prosperity and stability. However, due to the complex interactions and high uncertainty in the WSE system, there is a lack of effective evaluation and diagnosis methods of WSE system coordinated development. This study presents a quantitative development evaluation model using the connection number value. A mechanical model is proposed to identify the coordination status and uncoordinated orientation. Finally, a coordinated development evaluation model is established by a risk matrix coupling various combinations of the development and coordination states. In addition, this method is applied to 16 cities in Anhui Province, and its spatiotemporal characteristics of coordinated development and uncoordinated reasons for the WSE system from 2011 to 2020 are identified. The results indicate that the average development degrees D in North Anhui, Central Anhui, and South Anhui are 0.422, 0.474, and 0.560, respectively; and those of coordination degrees C are 0.779, 0.804, and 0.737, respectively. Thus, the development of the WSE system in South Anhui is ahead of that in Central Anhui, and that in North Anhui is the most backward. The coordination status in Central Anhui is superior to that in North Anhui, while that in South Anhui is the worst. Consequently, the trends of the development and coordination for the WSE system in Anhui Province are opposite. Furthermore, the coordinated development states of South Anhui, Central Anhui, and North Anhui deteriorate in sequence before 2016, but afterward, the sequence becomes Central Anhui, North Anhui, and South Anhui. Huainan, Wuhu, Bengbu, Tongling, and Suzhou are the most severely uncoordinated development cities, and the 16 cities in Anhui Province are divided into three uncoordinated types. In addition, some practical suggestions are presented for WSE system management in Anhui Province. The results obtained in this study help to elucidate the physical mechanism of WSE system coordinated development and provide policy insights for regional sustainable development.