Estimating individual trajectories of structural and cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment for early prediction of progression to dementia of the Alzheimer's type

Only a third of individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progress to dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT). Identifying biomarkers that distinguish individuals with MCI who will progress to DAT (MCI-Converters) from those who will not (MCI-Non-Converters) remains a key challenge in the field. In our study, we evaluate whether the individual rates of loss of volumes of the Hippocampus and entorhinal cortex (EC) with age in the MCI stage can predict progression to DAT. Using data from 758 MCI patients in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Database, we employ Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models to estimate individual trajectories of regional brain volume loss over 12 years on average. Our approach involves three key analyses: (1) mapping age-related volume loss trajectories in MCI-Converters and Non-Converters, (2) using logistic regression to predict progression to DAT based on individual rates of hippocampal and EC volume loss, and (3) examining the relationship between individual estimates of these volumetric changes and cognitive decline across different cognitive functions-episodic memory, visuospatial processing, and executive function. We find that the loss of Hippocampal volume is significantly more rapid in MCI-Converters than Non-Converters, but find no such difference in EC volumes. We also find that the rate of hippocampal volume loss in the MCI stage is a significant predictor of conversion to DAT, while the rate of volume loss in the EC and other additional regions is not. Finally, individual estimates of rates of regional volume loss in both the Hippocampus and EC, and other additional regions, correlate strongly with individual rates of cognitive decline. Across all analyses, we find significant individual variation in the initial volumes and the rates of changes in volume with age in individuals with MCI. This study highlights the importance of personalized approaches in predicting AD progression, offering insights for future research and intervention strategies.