Nonlinear dynamics and optimal control strategies of a novel fractional-order lumpy skin disease model

Fractional order differential equations are often employed to better and accurately model several natural and physical processes with memory characteristics than the integer-order models. In this work, a proposed fractional-order model is presented to simulate one of the most dangerous viral cattle diseases. The present fractional-order Lumpy Skin Disease model considers the interactions between different compartments of cattle and virus vectors. The solution of the model is examined in terms of existence, uniqueness, positivity and boundedness. Then, the stability analysis of the different equilibrium points in the model is carried out. The basic reproduction number, R0, has been obtained too. The dependence of stability regions on the values of key parameters is demonstrated and the sensitivity of R0 to different parameters in the system is also investigated. Finally, a proposed optimal control scheme is adopted to successfully diminish the disease spread. It is found that the stability of disease-free equilibrium point is verified at small values of the infection rate of cattle caused by infected cattle or insects. In addition, the disease-free equilibrium point maintains its stability in cases where the recovery rate of cattle or the vaccination rate of cattle are increased. Moreover, the high-efficiency vaccination program helps in stabilizing the disease-free equilibrium point. Also, the fractional-order parameter is found to provide additional degree of freedom in the model to represent different scenarios of evolution for solution orbits. The optimal control parameters of the model are examined in different scenarios to limit or suppress the spread of the disease. It is demonstrated that two control parameters are sufficient to achieve the goals of disease elimination and stabilization of an infection-free steady state. Numerical simulations are verified to confirm our theoretical findings and estimations.