Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in China

The relationship between climate conditions and pest life is a key determinant of their distribution. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee, a major rice pest, exhibits outbreaks and its distribution patterns closely linked to meteorological factors. By using 244 actual distribution and occurrence data of C. medinalis along with 8 bioclimatic data, and employing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, combined with the latest SSPs climate scenario data, this study evaluated the risk region distribution status in the current period and predicted changes in China from 2040 to 2100. The results indicate that an overall increase in the risk area for C. medinalis, particularly under SSP245 scenario during 2040-2060. While Low-risk areas are expected to decrease, Medium and High-risk areas are projected to increase significantly, with worsening pest infestations anticipated in southern Hubei, eastern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, central Fujian, northern Guangdong, and southern Jiangsu. Regions such as central Liaoning are expected to reach the minimum survival standard for C. medinalis in future, leading to the northward shift in risk areas. Difference plots highlighted areas of increased and decreased suitability, providing actionable insights for policymakers. Regions with increased suitability align with the predicted northward shift of many agricultural pests, necessitating enhanced monitoring, specific pest control measures, and updated agricultural policies to address changing risk profiles. Additionally, the centroid analysis showed a northwest shift direction in future, primarily located at the junction of Shaoyang City and Loudi City, situated around 27-28 degrees N degrees north latitude and 111-113 degrees E. The study underscores the significant impact of climate change on the distribution of rice leaf roller, providing valuable insights for agricultural planning and management. The northward and westward expansion of risk areas necessitates adaptive strategies to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture. Enhanced monitoring, integrated pest management, and the development of pest-resistant crops are essential for addressing future challenges posed by climate change.