Analysis of the effects of climate change on resilience and food security of rural households, a case study of Mashhad Township in Iran

Climate events threaten the food security of many households. On one hand, climate-related stressors have negative impacts on the income and food security of rural communities. On the other hand, they lead to food insecurity by increasing food prices. Therefore, achieving sustainable food security in rural households requires increasing resilience and restoring food security. In this regard, this study aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on the resilience and level of food security of rural households in Mashhad Township. The statistical population of the study is 11,706 rural households in Mashhad Township, which were selected based on Morgan's Table. Three hundred seventy-two households were randomly selected and proportionally assigned by multistage stratified sampling method. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using the experts' opinions, and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to determine the reliability of the questionnaire. Advanced statistical methods such as Structural Equation Modeling and Pearson correlation were used to analyze and interpret the data. The study's results, which used structural equation modeling with AMOS software, indicate that climate change has led to reduced productivity and performance of agricultural products, increased prices, and loss of assets and capital of farmers through decreased rainfall, increased temperature and heat. Also, the correlation analysis results showed that there is a significant positive relationship between resilience on climate change and food security with a coefficient of 0.862. Therefore, to increase resilience and food security against climate change, rural households can diversify their income sources, agricultural infrastructure, and increasing production efficiency.