Modeling and Simulation of Susceptible - Exposed - Infected - Recovered - Vaccinated - Susceptible Model of Influenza

被引:1
作者
Paneva, Maja Kukusheva [1 ]
Stojkovikj, Natasha [2 ]
Zlatanovska, Biljana [2 ]
Lazarova, Limonka Koceva [2 ]
Ilievska, Aleksandra Stojanova [2 ]
Bande, Cveta Martinovska [2 ]
机构
[1] Goce Delcev Univ Krste Misirkov, Fac Elect Engn, 10A, Stip 2000, North Macedonia
[2] Goce Delcev Univ Krste Misirkov, Fac Comp Sci, 10A, Stip 2000, North Macedonia
来源
TEM JOURNAL-TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATICS | 2024年 / 13卷 / 01期
关键词
Influenza; simulation; results; epidemic model; vaccination;
D O I
10.18421/TEM131-69
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
-Influenza, surpassing all other respiratory diseases in both morbidity and mortality, annually triggers seasonal epidemics responsible for approximately 500,000 global deaths. Mathematical epidemic models serve as valuable tools for forecasting potential outbreaks and predicting the trajectory of the disease. This paper represents a comprehensive SEIRVS model tailored to the context of Influenza transmission dynamics in North Macedonia. In this paper the classical Susceptible- Exposed- Infectious- Recovered ( SEIR) model is enhanced by incorporating vaccination and a death compartment while examiningtheir impact on the spread of Influenza through the population. Simulations are conducted using data from the 2022/2023 season, focusing on a case study of NorthMacedonia. The simulations were conducted utilizing both the actual vaccination rate in N. Macedonia for that season and an increased vaccination rate to observe the influence of vaccination. The simulation results emphasize the need to increase the vaccination rate. The findings contribute valuable insights for public health planning and policy making.
引用
收藏
页码:663 / 669
页数:7
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