Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface runoff from urban land use (city of Lublin) under climate change

An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026–2035 and 2046–2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%—32 022 kg/year and 89%—2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads. Graphical abstract: (Figure presented.) © The Author(s) 2024.