Labour market reforms, institutional complementarity and the insider-outsider wage gap

This article provides long-term evidence on how wage differentials between permanent and temporary workers are shaped by institutions that play a key role in labour market dualism, i.e. industrial relations, employment protection legislation and unemployment benefits. A two-step multilevel approach with fixed effects is employed using EU-SILC data for 25 European countries spanning up to 17 years (waves 2004-2020, N = 397) to estimate the moderating effects of several institutions and their interactions on the wage gap by contract type and across the whole wage distribution. The results show that more insider-oriented institutions tend to widen wage differentials and that the impact of institutional reforms on the wage gap varies greatly with the given institutional context. Overall, policy trends towards flexibilization risk widening insider-outsider divides due to accumulating labour market risks for temporary workers, thus increasing labour market segmentation by contract type.