Uncertainty Analysis of a Lumped Physically Based Numerical Model of Dam Breaching

被引:0
作者
Schmitz, Vincent [1 ]
Arnst, Maarten [2 ]
Abderrezzak, Kamal El Kadi [3 ,4 ]
Pirotton, Michel [1 ]
Erpicum, Sebastien [1 ]
Archambeau, Pierre [1 ]
Dewals, Benjamin [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Liege, Res Grp Hydraul Environm & Civil Engn HECE, Liege, Belgium
[2] Univ Liege, Computat & Stochast Modeling, Liege, Belgium
[3] Natl Lab Hydraul & Environm LNHE, EDF R&D, Chatou, France
[4] St Venant Lab Hydraul, Chatou, France
来源
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 39TH IAHR WORLD CONGRESS | 2022年
关键词
Uncertainty analysis; Dam breaching; Sobol indices; Sampling method; Numerical model; PREDICTION; PARAMETERS;
D O I
10.3850/IAHR-39WC2521716X2022466
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Failures of dams and dikes often lead to devastating consequences in protected areas. Numerical models are crucial tools to assess flood risk and guide emergency plans, but numerous sources of uncertainty exist. Therefore, identifying input variables uncertainties that induce critical uncertainties in model outputs is essential. Using Monte Carlo procedure, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices of total order on 28 reference configurations. In each case, it allowed ranking input variables as a function of the significance of their uncertainty on the output variability and, for the first time, the dependency between reference configurations and sensitivity analysis results was highlighted. Uncertainty propagation was performed based on our implementation of the lumped fully coupled hydro-morphodynamic model developed by Wu (2016). Also, two new methods were developed to generate samples of dependent input variables.
引用
收藏
页码:4698 / 4703
页数:6
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