Metabolic tumour area: a novel prognostic indicator based on 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the R-CHOP era

Background The metabolic tumour area (MTA) was found to be a promising predictor of prostate cancer. However, the role of MTA based on F-18-FDG PET/CT in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) prognosis remains unclear. This study aimed to elucidate the prognostic significance of MTA and evaluate its incremental value to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) for DLBCL patients treated with first-line R-CHOP regimens. Methods A total of 280 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL and baseline F-18-FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively evaluated. Lesions were delineated via a semiautomated segmentation method based on a 41% SUVmax threshold to estimate semiquantitative metabolic parameters such as total metabolic tumour volume (TMTV) and MTA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off values. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were the endpoints that were used to evaluate the prognosis. PFS and OS were estimated via Kaplan-Meier curves and compared via the log-rank test. Results Univariate analysis revealed that patients with high MTA, high TMTV and NCCN-IPI >= 4 were associated with inferior PFS and OS (P < 0.0001 for all). Multivariate analysis indicated that MTA remained an independent predictor of PFS and OS [hazard ratio (HR), 2.506; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.337-4.696; P = 0.004; and HR, 1.823; 95% CI, 1.005-3.310; P = 0.048], whereas TMTV was not. Further analysis using the NCCN-IPI model as a covariate revealed that MTA and NCCN-IPI were still independent predictors of PFS (HR, 2.617; 95% CI, 1.494-4.586; P = 0.001; and HR, 2.633; 95% CI, 1.650-4.203; P < 0.0001) and OS (HR, 2.021; 95% CI, 1.201-3.401; P = 0.008; and HR, 3.869; 95% CI, 1.959-7.640; P < 0.0001; respectively). Furthermore, MTA was used to separate patients with high NCCN-IPI risk scores into two groups with significantly different outcomes. Conclusions Pre-treatment MTA based on F-18-FDG PET/CT and NCCN-IPI were independent predictor of PFS and OS in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP. MTA has additional predictive value for the prognosis of patients with DLBCL, especially in high-risk patients with NCCN-IPI >= 4. In addition, the combination of MTA and NCCN-IPI may be helpful in further improving risk stratification and guiding individualised treatment options. Trial registration This research was retrospectively registered with the Ethics Committee of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, and the registration number was approval No. 155 (approved date: 31 May 2022).