Development of a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality in patients with post-infarction ventricular septal rupture

被引：0

作者：

Zhang, Zheng ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yahui ^{[1
]}

Cheng, Qianqian ^{[2
]}

Zhang, Jing ^{[3
]}

Gao, Chuanyu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Zhengzhou Univ, Peoples Hosp, Henan Prov Peoples Hosp, Dept Cardiol, 7 Weiwu Rd, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, Peoples R China

[2] Zhengzhou Univ, Fuwai Cent China Cardiovasc Hosp, Henan Prov Key Lab Control Coronary Heart Dis, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China

[3] Zhengzhou Univ, Fuwai Cent China Cardiovasc Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Coronary Care Unit, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2024年 / 14卷 / 01期

关键词：

Ventricular septal rupture; Acute myocardial infarction; Nomogram; Prediction model; 30-day mortality; ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION; MECHANICAL COMPLICATIONS; OUTCOMES; REPAIR; DEFECT; RISK;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-024-68792-y

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Ventricular septal rupture (VSR) is a mechanical complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and its mortality has not decreased significantly in recent decades. However, no clinical model has been developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with post-infarction VSR (PIVSR). This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the 30-day mortality by using the clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with PIVSR. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to construct a nomogram by R. The model was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). The bootstrap method was used to validate the model internally. As a result, a nomogram was constructed by using six variables, including CRRT, mechanical ventilation, PPCI, WBC, PASP and methods of treatment. The AUC of the prediction model was 0.96 (0.93, 0.98). The prediction model was well calibrated. The DCA showed that if the threshold probability was between 15% and 95%, the nomogram model would provide a net benefit. The well-constructed and evaluated nomogram can be beneficial to clinicians to predict the risk of death within 30 days in patients with PIVSR.

引用

页数：10