Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5-2.2 GtCO2e per year and 1.9-7.0 GtCO2e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO2e per year in the default 1.5 degrees C scenario. Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions. Moving towards net-zero emissions requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which bring environmental and socioeconomic risks. This study reveals that demand and technological interventions in hard-to-abate sectors help to achieve net-zero targets with less reliance on CDR.