Prognostic value of visual IMPeTUs criteria and metabolic tumor burden at baseline [18F]FDG PET/CT in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Background 2-[F-18]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose ([F-18]FDG) positron emission tomography combined with low-dose computed tomography (PET/CT) can be used at diagnosis to identify myeloma-defining events and also provides prognostic factors. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of baseline [F-18]FDG PET/CT visual IMPeTUs (Italian myeloma criteria for PET Use)-based parameters and/or total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) in a single-center population of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) eligible for transplantation. Methods Patients with MM who underwent a baseline [F-18]FDG PET/CT were retrospectively selected from a large internal database of the University Hospital of Liege (Liege, Belgium). Initially, all PET/CT images were visually analyzed using IMPeTUs criteria, followed by delineation of TMTV using a semi-automatic lesion delineation workflow, including [F-18]FDG-positive MM focal lesions (FL) with an absolute SUV threshold set at 4.0. In a first step, to ensure PET/CT scans accurate reporting, the agreement between two nuclear medicine physicians with distinct experience was assessed. In the second step, univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to determine the prognostic significance of [F-18]FDG PET/CT parameters on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), respectively. Results A total of 40 patients with NDMM were included in the study. The observers agreement in the analysis [18F]FDG PET/CT images was substantial for the presence of spine FL, extra spine FL, at least one fracture and paramedullary disease (Cohen's kappa 0.79, 0.87, 0.75 and 0.64, respectively). For the presence of skull FL and extramedullary disease the agreement was moderate (Cohen's kappa 0.56 and 0.53, respectively). Among [F-18]FDG PET/CT parameters, a high number of delineated volumes of interest (VOI) using the SUV4.0 threshold was the only independent prognostic factor associated with PFS [HR (95% CI): 1.03 (1.004-1.05), P = 0.019] while a high number of FL (n > 10; F group 4) was the only independent prognostic factor associated with OS [HR (95% CI): 19.10 (1.90-191.95), P = 0.01]. Conclusion Our work confirms the reproducibility IMPeTUs criteria. Furthermore, it demonstrates that a high number of FL (n > 10; IMPeTUs F group 4), reflecting a high [F-18]FDG-avid tumor burden, is an independent prognostic factor for OS. The prognostic value of the TMTV delineated using a SUV4.0 threshold was not significant. Nevertheless, the count of delineated [F-18]FDG-avid lesions VOI using a SUV4.0 threshold was an independent prognostic factor for PFS.