2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

被引:98
作者
Esper, Jan [1 ,2 ]
Torbenson, Max [1 ]
Buentgen, Ulf [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, Mainz, Germany
[2] Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Inst, Brno, Czech Republic
[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England
[4] Masaryk Univ, Dept Geog, Brno, Czech Republic
关键词
SURFACE-TEMPERATURE; MOUNT-PINATUBO; EXPOSURE;
D O I
10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer(1,2), 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record(3-5). However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures(6). Here we combine observed and reconstructed June-August surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than 0.5 degrees C. Comparison of the 2023 June-August warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in CE 536 shows a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93 degrees C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse-gases-induced warming trend(7) that is amplified by an unfolding El Nino event(8), this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.
引用
收藏
页码:94 / 97
页数:4
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