The association between county-level mental health provider shortage areas and suicide rates in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective: Prior literature has shown that mental health provider Health Professional Shortage Areas (MHPSAs) experienced a greater increase in suicide rates compared to non-shortage areas from 2010 to 2018. Although suicide rates have been on the rise, rates have slightly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to characterize the differences in suicide rate trends during the pandemic by MHPSA status. Method: We used generalized estimating equation regression to test the associations between MHPSA status and suicide rates from 2018 to 2021. Suicide deaths were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. Results: MHPSA status was associated with higher suicide rates (adjusted IRR:1.088 [95% CI, 1.024-1.156]). Furthermore, there was a significant interaction between MHPSA status and year (adjusted IRR:1.056 [95% CI, 1.022-1.091]), such that suicide rates did not significantly change among MHPSAs but slightly decreased among non-MHPSAs from 2018 to 2021. Conclusions: During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a slight decrease in suicide rates among non-MHPSAs, while those with shortages experienced no significant changes in suicide rates. It will be important to closely monitor MHPSAs as continued at-risk regions for suicide as trendlines return to their pre-pandemic patterns.