Predicting performance in exams and deep approach to learning in first year university students: a new look at academic success

This study calls for a broadening of the perspective on academic success. While passing exams is an essential objective of higher education, it should not overshadow another important objective which is the development of students' skills, such as becoming curious, autonomous and reflective in the learning process. This study used Academic Performance in Exams (APE) and Deep Approach to Learning (DAL) as measures related to these two objectives. The aim was to identify and compare the factors that may influence APE and DAL. The study was conducted on first-year students (2011) at a French university. It was based on a random forest algorithm and took into account a wide range of factors belonging to different dimensions: demographics, social background, educational background, context of the educational programme, behavioural engagement, social environment, psychological and cognitive characteristics. The results show that the most important factors in predicting APE are the educational programme undertaken, student's educational background and parents' occupation. DAL was not found to be an important factor in APE. Regarding the prediction of DAL, the results point to the predominant weight of intrinsic motivation and the important weight of elaborated epistemic beliefs. In contrast, demographics and behavioural engagement were found to have negligible weight in predicting both APE and DAL. These findings raise questions about the type of success that is valued in the first year of university and call for reflection on assessment methods. They also allow the identification of levers that teachers can activate to support first year students.