Dynamics of large-scale solar PV adoption feedback effects: A technical, economic, and environmental assessment

Large residential solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration has a compound effect on the grid load reductions, PV hosts' economic savings, and the achievable environmental benefits, which is not fully understood. This study combines process-based energy balance modeling, life cycle assessment, regression analysis, and stochastic demand simulations to assess the technical, economic, and environmental tradeoffs under increased residential solar PV adoption, using Boston, MA as a testbed. It was found that increased PV adoption may lead to a steeper ramp-up in the grid during winter months, but a flattened peak load curve during summer months, emphasizing the need for seasonal time-of-use rates and energy storage. It also reduces electricity wholesale prices, lowering PV hosts' economic benefits by about $15 million under 100 % adoption. The largest buildings present the highest load reduction (top 5.5 %) and environmental benefits (top 16.6 %), but they are the least cost efficient (top 14.5 %), requiring tradeoff balance.