Nature-Based Solutions vs. Human-Induced Approaches for Alpine Grassland Ecosystem: "Climate-Help" Overwhelms "Human Act" to Promote Ecological Restoration in the Three-River-Source Region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

How climate change and human activities drive the evolution of the regional environment and where the quality of ecosystems improve or decline over time have become widespread concerns. In this study, we took the Three-River-Source (TRS) region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case, aiming to identify and quantify the contribution of the natural and anthropogenic factors to the ecosystem changes over the past years from 1980 to 2018 using the methods of remote sensing and spatial statistical analysis. Based on the land cover map interpreted by reference to satellite remote sensing imagery data, we defined the Ecological Restoration Area Proportion (ERAP) as the bare land patch decrement to indicate the ecologically restored quantity in space. Assembling the restoration project information, we digitalized and vectorized the ecological Restoration Intensity (RI) including the spatial range and temporal duration. Combining the ERAP and the net primary productivity (NPP), which indicates the quantity and quality of ecosystems, respectively, the ecological asset Index (EAI) was developed and calculated. Having integrated the datasets of the vegetation monitoring, climatic factors, geographical factors, and human activities, we performed multi-variable analysis of the attribution of how the change in the EAI, the NPP, and the EAI have been affected by these factors together. The NPP of the middle and eastern parts of the TRS region has improved the most, as the average growth rate of NPP reached approximately 2.5 kg C/m2/10a. Due to such dynamic pattern, we found that human-induced re-vegetation has made limited contributions in our multi-regression model as the variance explained by the RI merely amounts to 4.4% to 8.8%, while the changes were mostly dependent on the regional temperature and the precipitation which contributed over 45% to the ecological restoration on average. It was summarized that "climate-help" overwhelms "human act" in such alpine grassland ecosystem. The regression results for the different aspects of the ERAP and NPP demonstrated that the ecological restoration project helped most in regard to ecosystem quality improvement rather than the restored ecosystem quantity. Our study has developed a comprehensive assessment methodology that can be reused to account for more ecological asset. The case is an example of an alpine ecosystem in which the success of ecological restoration needs favorable climatic conditions as supporting evidence for the nature-based solution.