Carbon and air pollutant emissions forecast of China's cement industry from 2021 to 2035

被引：36
作者：
Liu, Xiao [1 ,2 ]
Yang, Li [1 ,2 ]
Du, Jinhong [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Hao [1 ,2 ]
Hu, Jingnan [1 ,2 ,4 ]
Chen, Aizhong [3 ]
Lv, Wei [3 ]
机构：
[1] Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, Inst Atmospher Environm, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
[3] Minist Ecol & Environm Peoples Republ China, Appraisal Ctr Environm & Engn, Beijing 100041, Peoples R China
[4] Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, 8 Dayangfang, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
来源：
RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING | 2024年 / 204卷
关键词：
Air pollution; Emission inventory; Cement industry; LSTM; Low carbon technology; CO2; EMISSIONS; REDUCTION; FUEL; PROJECTION; EVOLUTION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107498
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
The cement industry is a major source of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. This study developed a highresolution emission inventory for China's cement industry and forecasted emissions from 2025 to 2035. The results showed that emissions in 2020 were 251, 709, 142, and 1.35 x 106 Gg for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2, respectively. The optimal model projections for 2035 showed that fuel and clinker substitutions had the best reduction effect on SO2 and CO2, with average reduction rates of -11.42 % and -7.37 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. Pollutant control measures and clinker substitution had the best emission reduction effect on NOx and PM2.5, and the average reduction rates were -26.09 % and -4.23 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. These results showed that the substitution of fuel and clinker has important co-benefits for air pollutants in the cement industry.
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页数：9
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