Climate change impacts on the water flow to the reservoir of the Dez Dam basin

This study has led to changes in the Dez Dam water basin area in recent decades. Non-parametric Mann-Kendal trend test and two shift change point detection tests of Pettit and Buishand were applied to the discharge timeseries at the outlet of Tire, Marbore, Sazar, and Bakhtiari sub-basins to identify monotonic and abrupt changes. The Mann-Kendall test showed a significant negative (decreasing) trend of the flow in three sub-basins. Investigation of the flow of Dez Basin in the past decades shows significant monotonic and abrupt changes, which are mostly toward decreasing the basin's potential runoff. Considering this evidences, it is likely that the basin faces discharge reduction, and results emphasize on modification of water management strategies to adapt to climate change.