THE ARCTIC SEA-ICE CLIMATE SYSTEM - OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING

Significant advances are being made in our understanding of the Arctic sea ice-climate system. The mean circulation of the Arctic sea ice cover is now well defined through analysis of data from drifting stations and buoys. Analysis of nearly 20 years of daily satellite data from optical, infrared, and passive microwave sensors has documented the regional variability in monthly ice extent, concentration, and surface albedo. Advances in modeling include better treatments of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, improved atmosphere-ice-ocean coupling, and the development of high resolution regional models. Diagnostic studies of monthly and interannual sea ice variability have benefited from better sea ice data and geostrophic wind analyses that incorporate drifting buoy data. Some evidence exists for a small retreat of Arctic sea ice over the last 2 decades, but there are large decadal fluctuations in regional ice extent. Antiphase relationships between ice anomalies in different sectors can be related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Evidence suggests that episodes of significant salinity reduction in the North Atlantic, associated with extensive sea ice in the Greenland Sea, may be a manifestation of a decadal oscillation in the Arctic climate system. Aspects of the Arctic system in need of further attention include the surface energy budget and its variability, particularly with respect to the roles of cloud cover and surface types in summer. Sea ice thickness distribution data remain meager, and there are many unknowns regarding the circulation and hydrologic cycle of the Arctic Ocean and its links to the world ocean. Planned measurements from a new generation of satellites, supported by field programs, will provide much needed data to address these issues.