SPREAD AND POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SENECIO-MADAGASCARIENSIS POIR (FIREWEED) IN AUSTRALIA

The potential distribution of the herbaceous weed Senecio madagascariensis Poir. (fireweed) in Australia was estimated using the Bioclimate Prediction System, BIOCLIM. Climate profiles for S. madagascariensis predicted that suitable areas occurred only in the south-eastern region of Australia. Its potential to spread outside these areas was assessed by comparing the present African and South American distributions of this species with that observed in Australia. The rate of spread of S. madagascariensis in New South Wales was exponential, although in some regions, such as the Gloucester River Valley, the rates had decreased because all farms had become infested. The results indicate that S. madagascariensis may spread and increase in abundance along the far south coast of New South Wales and in south-eastern Queensland. Coastal areas in eastern Victoria and as far north in Queensland as the Tropic of Capricorn may be invaded.