6-YEAR PREDICTORS OF PROBLEMS IN A NATIONAL SAMPLE OF CHILDREN AND YOUTH .2. SIGNS OF DISTURBANCE

Objective: To identify 1986 and 1989 variables that significantly predicted signs of disturbance assessed in 1992. Method: 1986 parent reports and 1989 parent, teacher, and self-reports of syndromes, competencies, family variables, and stressful experiences were tested as predictors of 1992 reports of academic problems, school behavior problems, receipt of mental health services, suicidal behavior, police contacts, substance abuse, and the sum of these six signs. Results: The predictors accounted for large percentages of variance in most signs and predicted fairly accurately which members of case-control samples would manifest specific signs. Overall predictive accuracy was similar for both sexes, but many predictors differed for boys versus girls. The six signs were weakly associated with each other but were strongly associated with particular syndromes. Conclusions: Signs of disturbance were predictable over a 6-year period despite the diversity of a national sample. Previous manifestations of certain signs were modest predictors of the same signs. The Delinquent Behavior and Attention Problems syndromes, plus stressful experiences, predicted the most signs. Sex differences in predictors argue against generalizing findings and inferences from one sex to the other.