STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR THE RELIABILITY OF STRUCTURAL DESIGNS

The Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) has produced some guidelines for the assessment of the reliability of components and/or structures. The methods of analysis suggested by these guidelines are far from adequate and, in certain cases, contain some imperfections. In this paper, some of the weaknesses of the guidelines are identified. The shortcomings are mainly in the ease of calculations and the feasibility of the assumptions which are imposed. Three alternative methods aimed at tackling some of the weaknesses are introduced. A simulation study is used to compare these methods.