An Evaluation of Rule-Based Decision Support Methods in Norway 2005-2014: Practical Implications for Avalanche Education

The rate of recreational avalanche accidents has increased internationally in recent years. The purpose of this study was to (1) investigate how many historical (2005-2014) fatal avalanche accidents in Norway could have been prevented by using the Elementary Reduction Method (ERM) and the Obvious Clues Method (OCM/ALPTRUTh) and (2) discuss practical implications for decision making in avalanche terrain and avalanche education. We investigated 30 fatal slab avalanche accidents, of which 93% and 100% could have been prevented by applying the ERM and OCM (3 or more positive clues), respectively. Although experts are able to use "higher level rules" as a result of their experience, novices are not. Thus, we conclude methods such as the ERM and OCM could help novices develop expertise. Such decision-making aids are practical tools to help novices recognize critical conditions and to facilitate their ability to acquire expertise that goes beyond the use of simple checklists.