Ethnic mobilization in 2015 local elections in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Since Indonesia implemented the regional decentralization in 2001, ethnic politics attracted increasing scholarly attention. In the regional head elections, ethnic mobilization has become a pervasive phenomenon. Drawing upon the data in the 2015 local elections in the North Sumatra province, the article discusses two related questions, the strategy and the effect of ethnic mobilization. The article argues that, contrary to the minimum winning coalition theory, there is a weak correlation between the ethnic demography and the choice of ethnic mobilization strategy (bonding or bridging). Among all the ethnic mobilization tactics, the support of ethnic organizations may have a weak to moderate and positive impact on the voting results, while other tactics, including pairing with candidates of other ethnic groups and cultural presentations of ethnic identity, do not have much influence on the election results.