TRAJECTORY MODELING OF EMISSIONS FROM LOWER STRATOSPHERIC AIRCRAFT

A series of isentropic trajectory calculations has been performed for emissions by stratospheric aircraft moving across the northern midlatitude oceanic flight corridors. Emission of exhaust is simulated by the daily initialization of air parcels along a flight path on the 500 K isentropic surface. Parcels are tracked during the first three weeks of each January from 1980 to 1994 in order to determine the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of the exhaust and the likelihood of exposure to cold temperatures. Few parcels emitted along these flight paths at this time of year were found to have experienced nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) formation temperatures, except for the particularly cold Januarys 1986, 1987, and 1992. We also find that large zonal fluctuations in the distribution of the emissions are typical for this time of year and are strongly dependent on flight path. An extended 6-month (January-June) run in which parcels were released daily along the New York-London route shows that emissions in the flight corridor increase at a time-averaged rate which is nearly twice the rate at which the zonal average increases. In addition, local fluctuations of pollutant density can be several times higher than the zonal average and can persist for several weeks. A study of seasonal variability also shows a rapid buildup of emissions during the summer months. These elevated emission levels must be considered in the interpretation of environmental impact assessments based on two-dimensional transport models.