ON THE INCLUSION OF PRECURSOR AND NEAR MISS EVENTS IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS - A BAYESIAN POINT OF VIEW AND A SPACE-SHUTTLE EXAMPLE

This paper proposes the point of view that so-called 'precursor' events, although perhaps different in degree, are not different in kind from any other failure event. Stated alternately, any failure event can be viewed as a precursor event; thus, in the Bayesian approach to risk assessment, the evidence that a precursor event has occurred may, and indeed should, be incorporated into the analysis in the same way as the evidence of any other failure. © 1989.