BETTING ON TRENDS - INTUITIVE FORECASTS OF FINANCIAL RISK AND RETURN

被引：203

作者：

DEBONDT, WFM

机构：

[1] Graduate School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1993年 / 9卷 / 03期

关键词：

INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY; NOISE TRADERS; OVERREACTION; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS;

D O I：

10.1016/0169-2070(93)90030-Q

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Based on nearly 38 000 forecasts of stock prices and exchange rates, it appears that non-experts expect the continuation of apparent past 'trends' in prices. Thus, they are optimistic in bull markets and pessimistic in bear markets. Interestingly, the subjects hedge their forecasts, i.e. their subjective probability distributions are skewed in the opposite direction. As a result, perceived risk also depends on prior performance.

引用

页码：355 / 371

页数：17

共 56 条

[1] TESTS OF ANALYSTS OVERREACTION UNDERREACTION TO EARNINGS INFORMATION AS AN EXPLANATION FOR ANOMALOUS STOCK-PRICE BEHAVIOR [J].