BAYESIAN RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS OF SERIES SYSTEMS OF BINOMIAL SUBSYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS

A Bayesian procedure is presented for estimating the reliability of a series system of independent binomial subsystems and components. The methodj considers either test or prior data (perhaps both or neither) at the system, subsystem, and component level. Beta prior distributions are assumed throughout. Inconsistent prior judgments are averaged within the simple-to-use procedure. The method is motivated by the following practical problem. It is required to estimate the overall reliability of a certain air-to-air heat-seeking missile system containing five major subsystems with up to nine components per subsystem. The posterior distribution of the overall missile-system reliablity from which the requied estimates are obtained is computed.